Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 104.873824 120.031844 137.123645 157.923666 182.686464 211.389276 247.417173
2025-12-28 88.116533 108.223385 132.958020 166.007806 209.596870 265.956657 345.732174
2026-01-04 77.404812 100.101216 129.885092 172.627565 233.737250 320.109516 455.468222
2026-01-11 69.560348 93.713350 127.094648 177.891176 255.615803 374.265202 577.929947
2026-01-18 62.785808 87.464679 123.063900 179.973566 272.279813 423.067351 704.170832
2026-01-25 56.890362 81.519617 118.363203 179.824719 284.758441 466.930918 833.432613
2026-02-01 51.211040 75.120583 111.991706 175.759609 289.543692 497.913399 946.845411
2026-02-08 46.421597 69.512549 106.092434 171.434713 292.794813 526.267487 1062.906851
2026-02-15 42.450081 64.759010 100.973882 167.611189 296.071490 554.972619 1188.376408
2026-02-22 41.397026 64.604268 103.425382 177.540615 327.280261 647.618775 1498.291948
2026-03-01 39.125707 62.168329 101.646602 179.287996 342.280240 708.700646 1752.233812
2026-03-08 37.203404 60.135014 100.331862 181.687400 359.000980 777.762265 2058.350758
2026-03-15 34.966498 57.432891 97.670732 181.359168 370.450490 839.056032 2377.826569
2026-03-22 34.321159 57.512612 100.185855 192.060858 409.491443 983.373654 3057.350387
2026-03-29 33.385642 56.962764 101.419987 200.215657 444.312737 1128.249126 3842.984991
2026-04-05 32.313170 56.048659 101.821519 206.575076 476.092600 1275.779907 4758.454206
2026-04-12 30.938330 54.430332 100.622669 209.084007 498.314230 1401.875822 5690.082442
2026-04-19 29.430950 52.425998 98.421291 208.907696 513.157929 1509.364052 6633.806596
2026-04-26 27.640816 49.723969 94.499501 204.032845 513.584610 1566.886879 7363.725186
2026-05-03 25.978418 47.159166 90.647886 198.850961 512.172062 1617.931990 8115.695148
2026-05-10 24.504785 44.873683 87.205249 194.274024 511.769408 1673.443877 8967.234105
2026-05-17 24.400422 45.389313 89.974622 206.168395 566.135372 1975.265155 12030.689811
2026-05-24 23.572566 44.329944 89.101899 208.264340 589.115355 2154.918493 14458.423273